The implied volatility index KEPE GRIV or "fear index" of the Center for Planning and Economic Research (KEPE) fell further in August.

According to the Center's press release, the "fear index" decreased in August 2021 reaching 24,26% on 31/8/2021 from 25,31% on 30/7/2021. The index remained below its historical average (since January 2004) for the Greek market, at 32.77%. In addition, in August 2021 the average daily value of the index decreased to 24,49% from 24,81% in July 2021.

The "fear index" reflects the uncertainty of derivatives market participants about the expected short-term performance of the Greek market and is calculated on the basis of the prices of the options of the FTSE/X.A. Large Cap index. Its evolution reflects a reduction in uncertainty about the expected short-term performance of Greek companies.

KEPE Composite Pre-emption Index

This is a Composite Pre-emption Index (DBP) based on a dynamic factor model. It is constructed using six selected monthly financial variables with pre-pre-harvest characteristics. It provides precursor indications of the course and turnarounds in Greek economic activity. These indications come before they are reflected in the current figures of total economic activity.

According to the most recent observation for May 2021, the DBP increased significantly for the third consecutive period. Thus, it has now surpassed the highest level recorded in August 2018, after the multi-year economic crisis. This development reflects the continued strengthening of expectations and the very positive path of the estimates of participants in economic activity.

Therefore, the DBP provides precursor indications for the recovery of the Greek economy, as a result of the gradual lifting of restrictive measures and the consequent reopening of all sectors of the economy, as well as progress in vaccinating citizens.

However, uncertainty about the overall evolution of the pandemic and the associated mutations at domestic and international level remains significant. This is a factor that can re-affect the economic climate and environment. For this reason, a reassessment of the DBP is necessary. The incorporation of the new data should demonstrate whether or not the observed trends continue. In addition, it may provide additional indications on the course of future domestic economic activity.

KEPE prepares and publishes on a monthly basis the two innovative and specialized indicators. The aim is to monitor the economic situation regularly.