According to the IOBE, Greece could have achieved 6.3 billion euros more growth if it had avoided the under-implementation of the NSRF in the period 2015-2019 and absorbed EU funds at a rate similar to that of the countries of the European South. In fact, if it had reached the performance of pioneering countries such as Finland, then the extra GDP would have even reached EUR 15 billion.

This is the conclusion reached by the IOBE in a special analysis included in its report "The Greek Economy, 4th/2019". He explains that the total budget of co-financed expenditure from the six main EU structural and investment funds in Greece in the Fifth Programming Period 2014 – 2020 is €26.2 billion. of which €21.4 billion Community funds and EUR 4.8 billion euro national contribution. Of these, by 30/09/2019, 84% had been allocated to national actions and programmes. It is noted that the allocated funds of each member country has the right to use them, if relevant investments of equivalent value are found, to support them.

IOBE report on under-implementation of the NSRF - Detailed data/comparison with other countries

The relevant investments made in Greece in the corresponding period reached only στα 7,4 billion or 28% of the total budget, while in other southern European countries implementation has reached 43% (Portugal) and 44% (Cyprus), according to the IOBE report.

In Finland it has exceeded 64% of their budget, with the result that the country is one of the best practices in the use of Community funds.

IOBE presents the discrepancy per year in the implementation of co-financed investments in Greece compared to the two countries of the south and Finland, in terms of percentage points of the total budget of each country. With the exception of 2016, Greece lags behind the co-examined countries every year.

IOBE estimated the results on GDP from 2015 to the third quarter of 2019 from the overall implementation of the NSRF 2014-2020 in countries of the EU periphery with characteristics similar to Greece (Cyprus, Portugal), as well as in Finland.

In the first two countries during this period, 43% of the co-financed budget for the Fifth Programming Period had been allocated to investments. If the degree of implementation domestically was the same as that, overall in the period 2015 – third trimester. 2019 NSRF 2014-2020 expenditure would be approximately €4.0 billion. or 53% more than was done. These account for approximately EUR 790 million per year. or 0.44% of average nominal GDP in 2015 - 2018.

Furthermore, if Greece had achieved the pace of implementation of Finland's co-financed programmes (cumulative 64%), more aid of around €9.4 billion would have been made available in the five-year period 2015–2019. or 126% more than has been done so far. These account for €1.88 billion per year. or 1% of nominal GDP in 2015 - 2018.

Conclusions

It is also estimated that a faster implementation of the NSRF in each year in the period 2015 - 2019, with implementation rates of Cyprus and Portugal, would result in a greater GDP growth of 0.5 billion. short-term, which over 15 years would reach EUR 1.3 billion.

Faster implementation, at Finnish rates, would result in a higher increase in GDP in the short term, by 1.2 billion, and up to 3.0 billion. long-term (15 years). Therefore, in the total of five years in which the NSRF is implemented, if the pace of the countries of the south of the Eurozone were followed, the total direct aid to GDP would reach 2.6 billion. and this in the long run the 6.3 billion, whereas if Finland's best practices were applied in this regard, the short-term effect would be EUR 6.1 billion, which in a 15-year perspective would be up to EUR 15.0 billion.

IOBE concludes that "it is considered appropriate to give high political priority in the near future to the timely and effective utilization of the funds of the NSRF 2014-2020, at rates similar or even faster than those noted by other European countries. The delay so far in the implementation of co-financed investments under the Fifth Programming Period, compared to the majority of EU countries, exacerbates the effects of the multi-year economic adjustment period 2010 - 2018, increasing the distance of the Greek economy from the EU average. The scarcity of capital from the banking system, which is in a multi-year phase of restructuring, increases the need for the rapid and effective use of resources from the EU structural and investment funds in the coming years," iobe said.